Projections of Chinese steel production up to 2010 for a global iron ore major

Desired Outcome
The creation of a broad China strategy, based on analytically defensible projections of China's steel production figures from 2006 to 2010.

Methodology

Through detailed analysis, several sectors were identified as major drivers of Chinese Steel demand. The historical growth of these sectors were compared to the growth in steel demand, and a weighted index of sector output growth was compiled that tracked steel demand growth as closely as possible.

Once the weighted index was compiled, growth forecasts for individual sectors could be made, and thus a future domestic steel demand could be determined by applying these growth rates to the index. A policy-based projection of import and exports was added to the demand results to produce a forecast for domestic production.

Outcome

A 150 page report was produced that set out the findings and strategic recommendations. The report was presented in four parts:
• PART 1: An Appraisal of the Macro-environment in China
• PART 2: An Appraisal of the Steel Industry in China
• PART 3: Integration and Broad Conclusions for Marketing
• PART 4: A Preliminary Strategy Framework for China